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PRMIA Operational Risk Manager (ORM) Sample Questions:

1. Which of the following statements is true:
I. Recovery rate assumptions can be easily made fairly accurately given past data available from credit rating agencies.
II. Recovery rate assumptions are difficult to make given the effect of the business cycle, nature of the industry and multiple other factors difficult to model.
III. The standard deviation of observed recovery rates is generally very high, making any estimate likely to differ significantly from realized recovery rates.
IV. Estimation errors for recovery rates are not a concern as they are not directionally biased and will cancel each other out over time.

A) III and IV
B) I, II and IV
C) II and IV
D) II and III

2. Which of the following are valid methods for selecting an appropriate model from the model space for severity estimation:
I. Cross-validation method
II. Bootstrap method
III. Complexity penalty method
IV. Maximum likelihood estimation method

A) All of the above
B) I and IV
C) I, II and III
D) II and III

3. Which of the following statements are true:
I. The three pillars under Basel II are market risk, credit risk and operational risk.
II. Basel II is an improvement over Basel I byincreasing the risk sensitivity of the minimum capital requirements.
III. Basel II encourages disclosure of capital levels and risks

A) I only
B) I and II
C) III only
D) II and III

4. The Altman credit risk score considers:

A) A historical database of the firms that have survived
B) A combination of accounting measures and market values
C) A historical database of the firms that have defaulted
D) A quadratic approximation of the credit risk based on underlying risk factors

5. A bank extends a loan of $1m to a home buyer to buy a house currently worth $1.5m, with the house serving as the collateral. The volatility of returns (assumed normally distributed) on house prices in that neighborhood is assessed at 10% annually. The expected probability of default of the home buyer is 5%.
What is the probability that the bank will recover less than the principal advanced on this loan; assuming the probability of the home buyer's default is independent of the value of the house?

A) 0
B) More than 1%
C) More than 5%
D) Less than 1%

Solutions: